Boeing 737 MAX Production Increase In Limbo

Despite hopes that 737 MAX production would increase sooner rather than later, the FAA is keeping its cards close to its chest.

Current production rates every month for the popular single-aisle series are capped at 38; they have been since the beginning of 2024, when a door blowout incident occurred aboard an Alaska Airlines MAX jet.

While the door blowout incident made headlines for all the wrong reasons, it wouldn’t be isolated with further checks finding that there were many other quality concerns with the 737 MAX program, which had gone unnoticed, posing questions about the genuine progress the planemaker had made with quality across recent years and following the fatal accidents of the late 2010s.

As a result, the Federal Aviation Administration, which governs Boeing, tightened its grip on the planemaker in a bid to understand better how persistent quality slips were occurring.

The increased oversight was in an effort to also prevent the slips from continuing to occur at a reduced rate, hopefully enough for Boeing to take the necessary time to implement the proper course correction to move ahead with its own rebuild, which had at that point seemingly failed time and time again.

Now more than 18 months on from the production cap, progress has been made on the MAX with the monthly rate finally reaching the capped figure of 38, and there’s been renewed optimism that an incremental increase could come by as early as October, according to some.

But the FAA remains more hesitant, and its Chief has confirmed that there has yet to be a formal decision on whether the production cap currently in place on the 737 MAX will be lifted.

While there has been noticeable improvement, the FAA said that it may not be occurring at the rate that Boeing would like. It is necessary to move ahead through the process with patience and diligence to ensure quality slips do not happen again.

Why A 737 MAX Production Increase Is Important

While a production increase rate on the 737 MAX may be suitable when all parties deem it so, on a more grounded level, that rate increase is significant for the planemaker.

The 737 MAX remains the most popular aircraft in the Boeing portfolio and is used around the world as a key single-aisle solution for airlines with short to medium-haul networks.

As a result, the MAX program accounts for a substantial portion of the company’s overall revenue and financial performance. Since the rates were placed on the business, there has been intense financial strain on the industry.

Because of this, the only way some of the financial tensions will be eased is when the FAA grants the planemaker permission to move ahead with a rate increase; however, there are many more reasons than just this.

The 737 MAX remains an in-demand aircraft, with orders occurring every month, adding further to the backlog. Lower production rates result in lower delivery rates than what would ideally be achieved.

What this means is that new deliveries to customers are being significantly delayed, having knock-on effects across the planemaker but also its airline customers, who are losing money because of their late additions, being forced to retain older aircraft, lose market share and are not capable of launching, for instance, the routes intended.

Ultimately, after years of turbulence, a move from the FAA to green-light the production increase would also be huge for Boeing as a planemaker in its attempts to formally turn the corner and recover after years of struggles and a brand image that has dramatically lost stature.

With all that being said, the FAA will remain patient, and while the speed of the increase may not be at the rate Boeing would want, the regulator believes this must be done correctly to ensure no more quality slip-ups occur.