Qantas Could Have A Project Sunrise Problem

Qantas has warnings about its Project Sunrise flights before they even take off, as concerns about Midway Atoll Airport (MDY) availability become apparent.

Midway is not an airport that Qantas intends to serve with its Airbus A350-1000ULR once flights launch aboard the type from late 2027; however, it’s vital for the airline’s ETOPS criteria.

The airport that would act as an ETOPS alternative, if unavailable, would affect the economics of the planned Sydney to London Heathrow service when it launches, with longer routing, additional fuel, and lower payloads.

According to Aero South Pacific, Qantas has calculated that losing Midway’s ETOPS capabilities would add a further 20 minutes to the journey, requiring 2,200kg of additional fuel.

The result, while seemingly minimal for a journey tallying near 20 hours, still creates a payload penalty equivalent to 22 passengers and gives the Australian flag-carrier food for thought before it even has the chance to launch these groundbreaking flights.

Why Midway matters for Qantas and its Project Sunrise

Qantas intends to launch nonstop Sydney to London Heathrow services from October 2027 under Project Sunrise with the Airbus A350-1000ULR, provided delivery occurs as scheduled in April next year.

The flagship and debut route between Sydney and London will be the first, and it will be customers’ first chance to see what the specifically configured Airbus widebody can do on ultra-long-haul. However, the route’s status as the world’s longest will also depend heavily on key planning across the Pacific and then the Northern Hemisphere trajectory.

With the A350-1000ULR configured to seat 238 passengers, and thus at a substantially lower count in comparison to the standard A350-1000, which is known for being the largest member in the family and an answer to the 777X, this is done on purpose.

The A350-1000ULR, with its 20,000 litres of additional fuel thanks to a rear fuel tank, makes missions of up to 22 hours possible and provides the range therefore crucial for these ultra-long-haul flights.

A proposal by the United States Government to revoke the Midway’s ETOPS certification would complicate matters. Current Qantas operations do not use Midway Atoll Airport for diversions, but Project Sunrise flights will rely on it.

Qantas told the Federal Aviation Administration that Midway (MDY) is important for its Project Sunrise flights to maintain an efficient, operational track.

For this type of operation, limited spare payload capacity and an extra 2.2 tonnes of fuel would have implications. Qantas would not necessarily need to slash its eating by 22 to make the lack of Midway access possible, but it must study the trade-off.

Midway Airport at risk from US authorities

Qantas’ concerns stem from Midway Atoll Airport, also more commonly referred to as Henderson Field. The airport, located in the north-central Pacific, isn’t a destination zone but rather a vital diversion point and ETOPS alternative in the event of an in-flight emergency.

However, without strong, sustained scheduled passenger operations, the airport’s infrastructure has deteriorated, and it requires heavy investment to maintain the operational capabilities needed to remain a safe ETOPS option.

Resurfacing and seawall work has been valued at more than USD 100 million, and the Federal Aviation Administration, which has acknowledged the importance of the tens of thousands of trans-Pacific flights a year, has vouched for the work for both civil and military reasons.

However, the FAA is aware of the work and has been looking for stakeholders for Midway Atoll Airport, knowing the work required by the US government, which owns and operates the airport, costs a mere USD 5 million a year. That figure is far below what is needed to restore the location’s integrity.

If the government chooses not to fund the improvements needed to bring the airport back up to standard, the location would quickly fall below the outlined certification and ETOPS requirements, putting thousands of flights at risk, including Project Sunrise.

Qantas isn’t the first, and likely not to be the last, to be upfront about its concerns that Midway Atoll is at risk of not being compliant and is pushing the US Government to come up with the funds necessary to ensure the location meets the criteria needed for the continued authorised use of it for ETOPS and/or possible diversions.

Qantas faces its biggest hurdle yet in launching Project Sunrise operations with its A350-1000ULR; while that’ll occur in October 2027 to London, the route’s structure still raises questions.