Boeing Says China Could Order The 777X

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg says that the blockbuster contract for 200 aircraft from China, with scope to grow to 750, could very well include the 777X one day.

His comments, aired in an interview with Aviation Week, reaffirmed the stance that there is absolutely a future for the newest long-haul jet once it has been certified and, importantly, has proven itself in service.

With such emphasis on the renewal and growth of the Chinese aviation industry, planes like the 777X are going to come into the reporting frame, as high-capacity needs must be met.

Is The 777X Fit For China?

China has many airlines that call it home; however, its big three are Air China, China Eastern and China Southern, all of which have built their own high-capacity operations with twin-jets like the 777-300ER and even the A330, with past operations led by the 747 and A380.

As the remaining fleets age and the 2030s approach, they will need to be replaced. While some of that renewal has been visible with the A350 and 787, it is glaringly evident that there is a commitment to more mid-size widebodies rather than to finding direct replacements for large-capacity passenger aircraft.

It’s the trunk routes to North America or Europe that come into view. The 777-9 from Boeing is specifically designed with a high capacity in mind, and in an era without quad-engined jets, its strong 400+ seat capacity and 20% lower fuel burn over the outgoing 777-300ER positions it perfectly for this.

For routes like Beijing to Los Angeles or Shanghai to London, and especially into slot-constrained hubs, the bid to find a more efficient yet still large platform will become important, and that’s where Ortberg believes the 777X can be the ideal fit for airlines that call this place home.

If the Boeing 777-9 isn’t ordered, the only other available option for these airlines is the Airbus A350-1000. That would be the case unless Airbus and Boeing move forward with their respective stretches of the A350 and 777X families, as speculated.

As a result, if China and its airlines truly want a plane with a strong configuration for deployment on its trunk routes in the 2030s and beyond, then a decision will need to be made on which direction to take. Ultimately, it’s unlikely that these airlines will stick with just modest widebodies.

What Has To Be Done First?

Tensions between China and the West have always been volatile. An order for 200 planes, likely to scale up to 750 and be a multi-type deal, alongside Airbus’ own dealings, has been a step in the right direction. However, as with previous arrangements, political tensions can threaten these deals at any time, and they always risk falling through.

For the 777X to be involved in a new contract, many things have to align, and for China and Boeing, that isn’t always the easiest pathway. First and foremost, relations need to remain healthy so that China can recommit to purchasing more aircraft from the American planemaker, as it likely will.

In the Boeing 777X’s case, as an aircraft, it’s very important in China and in the planemaker’s eyes that the jet is certified, which is likely to occur in 2027, 7 years later than expected. Certification, which paves the way for an EIS and real-world data and experience, is what China is looking for before it makes a decision.

That real-world experience and data aren’t isolated to just China. Thai Airways is also evaluating a new flagship, the 777-9, a very possible option. However, the Bangkok-based company isn’t in a rush, and equally wants the 777X to be certified and flying before it makes a decision.

Ortberg has acknowledged this, too. While the aircraft family has a strong order base and some of the largest international airlines are committed, the order backlog will grow over time, and the most important way to achieve this is to secure aircraft approval and provide prospective airlines with proof of a functioning, safe aircraft.